现代权威主义君主制与经济发展——基于112个发展中国家的面板数据分析

The Modern Autocratic Monarchical Regimes and Economic Growth: the Evidences from the Panel Data of 112 Developing Countries

现代权威主义君主制具有绝对主义君主制的诸多特征,是其在现代社会的存续和主要政体形式.奥尔森将权威主义君主制作为主要的靶标,认为其“共容利益”较低,统治者缺少长期视野,在这类政体下,税收会更高,公共产品较少,产权更易遭受侵害,影响经济发展.相反,在西式民主政体下,由于“共容利益”较高,税收会较低,公共产品供给更加充足,同时政府更替具有可预测性,产权制度更为“硬化”,能够有效促进经济发展.本研究对奥尔森的理论进行了全面的审视,提出在经济发展上,现代权威主义君主制并不会逊色于西式民主制.首先,君主是一国共同体的象征,这会有效减少该国的不稳定;其次,君主制注重传统和制度的持续,这会有助于产权保护,并且,君主所受到的多重约束和对名望的追求可以使其税收与公共产品供给不会与西式民主制有显著差别.本文采用112个发展中国家从1970年到2016年的面板数据建立计量模型,其结果表明,现代权威主义君主制在保障稳定和产权保护上相比于西式民主政体具有明显的优势.同时,在税收和公共产品供给上,两者没有显著的差异.奥尔森的理论推导没有获得实证数据支持,在现代权威主义君主制下,经济发展并不滞后于西式民主国家,甚至在某些促进经济增长的中介渠道上有着更为优异的表现.

With characteristics of absolutist monarchy,the modern autocratic monarchical regimes as the main regime type of absolutist monarchy survival in modern society.The masterpiece of olson has focused on monarchy and argues that because of its lower common interests and rulers lacking a long time horizon,the regime may suffer higher taxes,fewer public goods,a poor property rights protection。and hinder the development of economic.on the contrary,democracy which holds higher common interests and lower taxes,a more abundant supply of public goods,a more regular change of executive,and a more rigid property rights institution,has a positive impact on economic growth.This article makes a comprehensive review of olson and proposes that the modern autocratic monarchy has not a disadvantage compared with democracy in promoting economic development.First,the monarch is a symbol of a country’s community,which will effectively reduce the country’s instability.Secondly,the monarchy attaches great importance to the continuity of tradition and institutions,which will contribute to the protection of property rights.Moreover,the multiple constraints and pursuit of fame imposed on the monarchy can make it not significantly different from the democracy in terms of taxation and public goods supply.This article uses panel data from 112 developing countries from 1970 to 2016 to build an econometric model.The results show that modern autocratic monarchy has obvious advantages over democracy in maintaining stability and protecting property rights.At the same time,there is no significant difference between taxes and the supply of public goods.olson’s theoretical deduction is not supported by empirical data.The monarchy must not have worse economic performance than democracy,and it even better in some channels to promote economic growth.