何时"换道超车"?新市场进入时机与生存绩效——来自成熟产业的经验研究

When to"Change lanes and Overtake"?Entry Timing and Survival Performance of New Market:Empirical Research from A Mature Industry

运用生存分析法,基于1990~2010年美国航空产业这一成熟产业的新航线数据,探究了成熟产业中新市场进入时机对其生存绩效的影响.研究发现:新市场的进入时机与生存绩效呈倒"U"形关系,即新市场的生存绩效先随新市场进入时机的延后而升高,后随进入时机的延后而降低.在运用倾向得分匹配(propensity score matching,PSM)方法控制选择偏误后,两者的倒"U"形关系依然成立.进一步实证分析结果显示:先发者具有先占效应,提前锁定稀缺资源和目标客户,而后发者具有学习效应,降低试错成本、提高竞争能力,两者共同导致进入时机与生存绩效的倒"U"形关系.

Based on the data of an mature industry-US airlines’route in the period of 1990-2010,using the survival analysis method,this paper explores the impact of entry timing of new market in the mature industry on its survival performance.This research is found that entry timing and survival performance of new market shows an inverted U-shape relationship,that is,the survival performance first increases with the delay of entry timing,and then decreases with the delay of entry timing.The findings are still robust after considering the selection bias by propensity score matching(PSM).Further empirical analysis results show that the first mover has the lock-in effect and locks in scarce resources and target customers in advance,while the later mover has the learning effect,reduces the cost of trial and error,and improves competitiveness.The lock-in effect and learning effect together lead to the inverted U-shape of entry timing and survival performance relationship.