多式联运下的中国东北地区低碳运输实证研究

An Empirical Study on Low-carbon and Multimodal Transport in the Northeast China

随着“一带一路”倡议的提出、中欧班列的开行,东北地区集装箱运输蓬勃发展,但仍存在高碳排放的特点.在总结多式联运与低碳运输的研究现状基础上,选取中国东北三省集装箱运输进行实证研究.首先采用熵权-TOPSIS方法求出目的城市集装箱需求量,然后构建成本最小的集装箱多式联运优化模型,最后设计铁路联运、海运中转、港口扩建相关五种情景进行求解,并利用敏感性分析,研究公路单位运价和碳排放对整体的影响.研究结果表明:海运中转和扩大铁路占比是低碳经济运输的关键;装卸成本对总成本的影响远大于相应碳排放的影响;相同腹地、相近区位的港口需要整合以实现港口协同效应;铁路运输企业需采用多种价格运输产品提高竞争力;即使公路碳排放强度减少50%,单一运输方式仍然不如多式联运.

With the implementation of the"Belt&Road"initiative and CR express,the container transportation has blossomed in Northeast China,but there is still high carbon emissions.This paper summarizes the status quo of multimodal transport and low-carbon transport,and selects the container transport in the three northeastern provinces for empirical research.Firstly,the entropy weight-TOPSIS method is used to find the demand of the destination city.Then,by constructing the lowest cost multi-modal container optimization model,five related scenarios of rail transport,sea transport and port expansion are designed.Also,we use sensitivity analysis to study the impact of road unit price and carbon emissions on the whole.The results show that transshipment of seaborne and expanding the proportion of the railway is the key to low-carbon economy.The impact of handling costs on total costs is much greater than the impact of the corresponding carbon emissions;Ports in the same hinterland and adjacent areas need port consolidation to achieve port synergy.The railway transportation enterprises need to adopt a variety of price transport products to improve their competitiveness.Even if the intensity of road carbon emission is reduced by 50%,the single mode of transportation is still not as good as multimodal transport.