A New Regime Switching Model with State-Varying Endogeneity

In this paper,we propose a state-varying endogenous regime switching model(the SERS model),which includes the endogenous regime switching model by Chang et al.,the CCP model,as a special case.To estimate the unknown parameters in the SERS model,we propose a maximum likelihood estimation method.Monte Carlo simulation results show that in the absence of state-varying endogeneity,the SERS model and the CCP model perform similarly,while in the presence of state-varying endogeneity,the SERS model performs much better than the CCP model.Finally,we use the SERS model to analyze Chinese stock market returns,and our empirical results show that there exists strongly state-varying endogeneity in volatility switching for the Shanghai Composite Index returns.Moreover,the SERS model can indeed produce a much more realistic assessment for the regime switching process than the one obtained by the CCP model.