新中国70年经济波动的周期划分、特征和影响因素研究

STUDY ON THE PERIOD DIVISION, CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE 70 YEARS OF ECONOMIC CYCLE FLUCTUATION IN NEW CHINA

利用Markov区制转移模型对新中国成立70年来的经济波动进行周期划分,这期间共经历了10轮完整周期,目前正处于第11轮周期中.从整个波形来看,波动趋于平缓,呈现收敛态势.其中,扩张期与收缩期比率逐渐增大,波动幅度逐渐减小,扩张阶段是我国经济周期波动的主要状态,扩张阶段的持续性和稳定性逐渐增强.本文进一步从制度、政策、供给和需求四个方面构建Markov区制转移模型,分析各类外生冲击对经济周期波动的影响.结果表明,政策冲击和需求冲击在扩张期对经济周期波动的影响较为明显,制度冲击和供给冲击在收缩期对经济周期波动的影响较为明显.最后,为缓解经济波动,保持经济平稳健康发展,本文提出几点相关政策建议.

The Markov regime-switching model is used to divide the business cycle since the founding of New China.During this period,it has experienced 10 rounds of complete cycles and is currently in the 11th round.From the perspective of the entire waveform,the fl uctuations tend to be fl at and show a convergence.Among them,the ratio of expansion period to systolic period is gradually increasing,and the fl uctuation range is gradually decreasing.The expansion stage is the main state of China's business cycle fl uctuation,and the continuity and stability of the expansion stage are gradually enhanced.Furthermore,this paper constructs the Markov regime-switching model from four aspects:system,policy,supply and demand to analyze the impact of various exogenous shocks on the business cycle fluctuations.The results show that the impact of policy shocks and demand shocks on the business cycle fl uctuations during the expansion period is more obvious.The impact of system shocks and supply shocks on the business cycle fl uctuations during the contraction period is more obvious.Finally,in order to alleviate economic fluctuations and maintain a stable and healthy economic development,this paper proposes several relevant policy recommendations.