后危机时代:如何促进经济的实际增长

GROWTH AFTER THE CRISIS

随着我们摆脱当前的金融危机,发展中世界经济增长的全球环境将会怎样变化呢?即使危机的最坏时期已然过去,很可能我们仍将进入一个世界贸易增长步伐放缓的时期,外部融资将会更少,而且美国和其他富裕国家维持巨额经常账户收支的愿望也将显著变弱.本文重点分析这种情况对于发展中国家增长前景的影响.对于很多小的发展中国家来说,低估本币仍然是一个可行的工业化策略;中等收入和较大的发展中国家则需要向替代战略过渡.

How hospitable will the global environment be for economic growth in the developing world as we come out of the present financial crisis?The answer depends on how well we manage the following tension.On the one hand,global macro stability requires that we prevent external imbalances from getting too large.On the other hand,growth in poor nations requires that the world economy be able to absorb a rapid increase in the supply of tradables produced in the developing world.It is possible to render these two requirements compatible,but doing so requires greater use of explicit industrial policies in developing countries,which have the potential of encouraging of modern tradable activities without spilling over into trade surpluses.The“price”to be paid for greater discipline on real-exchange rates and external imbalances is greater use(and permissiveness)towards industrial polices.