中国系统性金融风险研究——政策转向与经济复苏

ANALYSIS OF CHINA’S SYSTEMIC FINANCIAL RISK——POLICY SHIFT AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY

本文借鉴国内外系统性金融风险的学术研究成果,从宏观和微观两个层面度量了中国系统性金融风险的动态变化,并以此为基础讨论中国宏观经济走势与相关政策.最新测算结果表明,2019年上半年中国宏观层面系统性金融风险指标较2018年水平大幅下降,处于历史较低水平,但微观层面指标仍然高企.2018年年中以来的政策转向是近期宏观经济企稳的主要原因,民营企业融资等问题得到部分缓解.但经济周期的滞后效应以及支持民营企业、小微企业融资的政策负担均可能使银行业不良贷款较快显现,构成经济复苏中的潜在风险.我们认为,中国经济同时面对内、外两方面的压力,但主要矛盾还是在内部,解决内部结构性、导向性的问题是抵御外部风险冲击的最有效手段,中长期的经济政策仍必须以改革和开放作为主线.例如进一步确立民营经济的重要地位、构建竞争中性的营商环境等,同时以中短期的宏观周期性宽松政策稳定国内经济走势、对冲外部贸易摩擦的负面影响,为正处于关键期、攻坚期的改革和开放赢得足够的时间窗口.

Using various approaches proposed in academic research and central banks,we monitor the systemic risk of China's financial system at both macro-and micro-levels.Together with macroeconomic background analysis,we provide insights about China's economic performance and financial stability,along with policy recommendations.China's macro-level systemic risk indicator has dropped significantly recently relative to 2018.However,micro-level indicators have soared and remained at a high level lately.Nevertheless,due to major policy shifts since late 2018,the macroeconomic performance steadied and recovered,and in particular the financing difficulties facing non-state-owned enterprises(non-SOEs)have been partially alleviated.Still,the alarmingly high micro-level indicators imply the potential risk of non-performing loans on banks'balance sheet,resulting from both the lagging macroeconomic cyclical effects and the policy burdens from stimulating small-to-medium enterprises(SMEs)and non-SOEs financing.Currently,the Chinese economy faces headwinds from both internal weakness and external frictions.However,the key solution lies from within–structural reform and market opening will fundamentally defuse the external shocks.Over longer horizons,the supply-side reforms should aim to level the playing fields for both SOEs and non-SOES,or so-called“competition neutral”.Over shorter horizons,the macroeconomic countercyclical policies should be relatively loose and aim to offset the negative shocks from the trade war.