稳定就业就是稳定经济大局

STABLE EMPLOYMENT IS TO STABILIZE THE OVERALL SITUATION OF THE ECONOMY

中国经济潜在增长率自2010年以来已显著降低,实际GDP增长速度也相应降低,成为经济发展新常态的特征之一.因此,宏观调控需要区分是潜在增长率下降导致的自然增速下行,还是需求侧冲击导致的周期性经济减速.直接观察反映就业状况的指标如调查失业率,看是否发生超出自然失业率之外的周期性失业,是更加科学可靠的判断宏观经济形势的依据.通过把实现充分就业的目标以及劳动力市场各类信号纳入宏观经济政策抉择中予以考量、决策和执行,积极就业政策就可以得到真正落实,如此一来,宏观经济政策终极目标和底线更加清晰、可操作,民生也得到了更好的保障.

The potential growth rate of China's economy,together with the increase of GDP,has been significantly reduced since 2010,which has become one of the characteristics of the new normal of economic development.Therefore,before macro-control,it needs to distinguish between the natural downturn caused by the potential decline in growth rate and the cyclical economic slowdown caused by demand-side shocks.Direct observation of indicators reflecting the employment situation,such as investigating the unemployment rate,to see whether there is a cyclical unemployment beyond the natural unemployment rate,is a more scientific and reliable basis for judging the macroeconomic situation.By incorporating the goal of full employment and various signals from the labour market into macroeconomic policy choices for consideration,decisionmaking and implementation,the active employment policy can be truly implemented,so that the ultimate goal and bottom line of macroeconomic policy are clearer and more operable,and people's livelihood is better protected.