生产率增长:全球模式、决定因素及其在中国的应用(上)

PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH:PATTERNS AND DETERMINANTS ACROSS THE WORLD AND AN APPLICATION TO CHINA

本文是世界银行长期增长模型项目(LTGM)关于生产率的扩展研究.通过对文献的回顾,本文识别了经济生产率的五个主要决定因素:创新、教育、市场效率、基础设施和制度.本文构建了代表生产率决定因素各主要类别的指标体系,并通过主成分分析法将多指标转化为一个总体指标.我们的数据来源于1985-2015年100多个国家.同时,本文提出了一个测算全要素生产率(TFP)的方法,并评估了不同地区和收入群体的生产率增长模式.本文还考察了TFP与五个决定因素之间的关系.通过将生产率增长的差异分解为五个决定因素所解释的份额,可以确定生产率增长与总体决定指标之间的关系.结果显示,在决定TFP增长差异的因素中,近10年来对OECD国家和发展中国家的TFP增长影响最大的因素分别是市场效率和教育.回归结果表明,在控制了国别效应和时间效应后,TFP增长与我们所提出的TFP决定因素指标具有显著的正向关系,与初始TFP具有负向关系.在此基础上,本文模拟了TFP增长的潜在路径,并基于地理区位和收入水平的区别介绍了不同国家的模拟结果.此外,本文模拟了中国在不同情景下的TFP潜在增长路径.

This is the background paper for the productivity extension of the World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model(LTGM).Based on an extensive literature review,the paper identifies the main determinants of economic productivity as innovation,education,market efficiency,infrastructure,and institutions.Based on underlying proxies,the paper constructs indexes representing each of the main categories of productivity determinants and,combining them through principal component analysis,obtains an overall determinant index.This is done for every year in the three decades spanning 1985–2015 and for more than 100 countries.In parallel,the paper presents a measure of total factor productivity(TFP),largely obtained from the Penn World Table,and assesses the pattern of productivity growth across regions and income groups over the same sample.The paper then examines the relationship between the measures of TFP and its determinants.The variance of productivity growth is decomposed into the share explained by each of its main determinants,and the relationship between productivity growth and the overall determinant index is identified.The variance decomposition results show that the highest contributor among the determinants to the variance in TFP growth is market efficiency for Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries and education for developing countries in the most recent decade.The regression results indicate that,controlling for country-and time-specific effects,TFP growth has a positive and significant relationship with the proposed TFP determinant index and a negative relationship with initial TFP.This relationship is then used to provide a set of simulations on the potential path of TFP growth if certain improvements on TFP determinants are achieved.The paper presents and discusses some of these simulations for groups of countries by geographic region and income level.In addition,as a country-specific illustration,the paper presents simulations on the potential path of TFP growth for China under various scenarios.