新电改背景下基于数据包络分析的电网投资有效性研究与应用

Research on and Application of Power Grid Investment Effectiveness Based on Data Envelopment Analysis in the Context of New Electricity Reformation

基于杜邦分析法和公共事业投资有效性管理框架,设计和完善了大型售电公司全要素发展经营效率评价指标体系,引入数据包络分析(DEA)方法,对2010-2016年某售电公司发展经营效率进行计算并进行了时间、空间分布评价.本文将数据包络分析和ROC曲线评价结果应用于企业管理实践,基于径向基神经网络方法,定量计算了支撑其既定投资规模所应具备的经营效率水平,对每万元电网资产运行维护成本、流动资产周转率、退役变压器平均寿命等4项关键指标给出了建议值,并提出相应管理措施.

Based on Dupont analysis method and the framework of effective management of public utilities investment,this paper designs and improves the evaluation index system of the total factor development and operation efficiency of a large power selling company,and introduces the data envelopment analysis(DEA)method to calculate the development and operation efficiency of a power selling company from 2010 to 2016,and evaluates its time and space distribution.In this paper,data envelopment analysis and ROC curve evaluation results are applied to enterprise management practice.Based on the radial basis function(RBF)neural network method,the operating efficiency level required to support the established investment scale is calculated quantitatively.The recommended values are given for key items such as operation and maintenance cost,turnover rate of current assets and average life of decommissioned transformers,and the corresponding management measures are proposed.