摘要
Aim: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis is an important cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to identify factors of HCC presence among HCV cirrhotic patients with and without small diameter HCC (≤ 3 cm). Methods: A case control transversal study between 1998 and 2003 including 93 patients: 31 with small diameter HCC and 62 without HCC. Groups were matched by age and gender. Multiple logistic regression analysis using Akaike Information Criteria to estimate the probability of HCC was performed. A model score was generated and bootstrap analysis was performed for internal validation. Results: Three significant laboratorial variables for HCC presence were found: alanine aminotransferase > 37 U/L [odds ratio (OR): 7.43 (1.61-34.19),P = 0.01], alpha-fetoprotein > 20 ng/mL [OR: 16.2 (4.17-63.01),P < 0.001] and platelet count < 100,000/mm3 (OR: 3.62 (1.43-9.14),P = 0.007)A model score with an area under curve of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.7-0.89) was built based on these variables. The negative predictive value of those classified as at low risk of HCC was 99.1%. Conclusion: An easy and practical model score was generated. It may be an auxiliary tool for identification of HCV patients with low probability of small diameter HCC at initial evaluation composed of three serum examinations used in routine outpatient clinical practice.
