中国产业结构变动与就业水平的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis on the Change of Industrial Structure and the Level of Employment in China

文章运用时间序列和计量模型研究了中国产业结构与就业水平之间的发展关系。首先运用格兰杰因果检验分析了第一、二、三次产业的产值与其就业之间的因果影响关系,继而从产值与就业两个角度定量分析了第一、二、三次产业各自对总就业水平的贡献,得出结论:第一产业和第三产业是劳动力就业的决定因素,而第二产业不是就业的决定因素;从产值角度来看,第三产业对劳动力就业的贡献最大,从就业角度来看,第一产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最高,其次是第三产业,而第二产业的就业对总体就业水平的贡献最小。最后根据研究结论提出相应的建议措施。

Applying the single-equation econometric model,the author models the relationship between the industry including the primary,the secondary and the tertiary and the level of employment.Firstly,the author uses the Granger cause test to analyze the corresponding relation between gross production and employment(increasing) of the primary,the secondary and the tertiary industry.Then analyzes quantitatively the respective contribution on employment of the primary, the secondary and the tertiary industry.The author reaches the conclusion that the primary and the tertiary industry are the crucial factors to promote employment,while the secondary is not.The tertiary industry can make the most contribution to the total employment from the angle of production value,so do the primary industry from the angle of employment.At the end,according to the conclusion above and aiming at the employment increasing,the author puts forward some effective suggestions to the development of industry.