用综合系数法作超长期洪涝灾害预测的研究

RESEARCH TO FORECAST FOR SURPER LONG TERM DISASTE FLOOD USED COMPOSITE INDEX

运用天文学、地学、水文学、灾害学和易学的基本原理，选用公元前２３０年至１９９４年有关突发性暴雨、短历时大暴雨、飓风、气旋、特大洪水等所造成的４４６场各种严重灾害，并通过对１５万组数据及描述其各组特征的文字资料进行分析、统计、计算列表、绘图等方式设计出一套综合系数，求取了形成我国洪涝灾害的危险指数：谷值是７，９，１１；峰值是１８，２４；上升段是１４；下降段是１８，校核历史上洪涝灾害，拟合率为７０％左右。最后对这种方法进行了讨论，指出了综合系数法不仅能有效地利用有文字记载的各种灾害资料，还能根据危险指数的大小及其特性预测出超长期洪涝灾害程度及其洪灾发生地点、时间等６大优点，又以近两年作业预报为实例作了验证。

This paper were used the fundamental principle of The Book of Charge,catastrophism,hydrology,hydrography and astronomy.A set of composite index was disigned according to analyse,statistics,calculate,tabulate,chart through to choose date of the number 446 of rainstorm suddenly happen,shorttime heavy storm,hurricane,cyclone and heavist flood from B.C 230 to A.D 1994 total fifteen thousands set number,and get the flood index in our country,The low value is number 7,9,111 and the high value is number 18,24.The ...