基于时间序列趋势模型的研究与应用

Research and Implementation of Trend Model on Time Series

该文针对呼叫中心话务量预测的问题,分析比较了目前常用的预测技术和方法,根据对实际话务量数据信息的分析研究,利用基于季节变动模型的时间序列分析方法,建立了原点相乘式直线型拟合季节变动趋势预测模型DART,对某呼叫中心话务量的时间序列进行了分析处理和预测,预测的结果表明该趋势模型能较全面地达到所要求的拟合效果和精度,从而较好地解决呼叫中心的呼入话务量的实际预测问题。

In order to solve the problem of the prediction of call center's incoming call,the paper introduces and analyzes the predicting methods of call center's data of incoming call.According to these actual data,the trend model DART with multiplication-origin linear fitting seasonal move model is established based on time series analysis method.The experiment result shows that the trend model satisfies fit accuracy between actual data and predicted data,and thus well solves the problem of prediction of the call c...