三维射击精度的Bayes参数自助评估方法

The Bayes Bootstrap Evaluation Method of Three-dimension Accuracy

Bayes方法是解决小样本评估问题的有效途径之一。提出了一个即充分利用验前信息又不会过分依赖验前信息的三维射击精度的Bayes评估方法。给出参数验前分布和验后分布的形式,列出了藉助参数自助法获得球概率误差SEP的Bayes点估计、置信上界和置信区间的实施步骤,并以实例说明本方法的使用程序和实际效果。

The Bayes method is an effective way to solve small sample evaluation problem.This paper develops an Bayes Bootstrp method for three-dimension accuracy,which makes best use of prior information but not depends on those information.After giving the prior distribution and posterior distribution of parameters,this paper discusses the practice approach of evaluation,which including the substitutional point estimation,confidence upper bound estimation and confidence interval estimation based on Bayes Bootstrap m...