关于国际收支弹性理论的实证研究

在推导出M -L条件验证公式及易于计算的进出口需求弹性实证公式的基础上 ,对我国的进出商品的需求弹性情况进行了实证研究。研究的结果完全支持国际收支弹性理论 ,并显示我国对整个世界商品市场的进出口需求弹性不满足M -L条件。因此 ,若人民币升值不但不会减少我国的经常项目收支差额 ,反而会扩大收支差额。

This paper derives the validating formula of M-L condition and the easy empirical formula of demand elasticity of imports and exports at first. And on the basis of this, and having carried on the empirical research on the situation of China, the research totally supports the elasticity approach to balance of payments. The result of research also shows that Chinese demand elasticity of imports and exports of the whole world commodity market dissatisfied the M-L condition. So it draws the conclusion: That RMB increases in value will not decrease our income and balance of current account, but will increase it.