西北干旱区农业生产对气候变化的响应评价初探——以黑河流域中段张掖市为例

The Response Assessment of Northwest Arid Region Agriculture Production to Climatic Change:Case Study of Zhangye in the Middle of Heihe River

由于气候变化的不确定性,对气候变化的响应评价比气候变化的影响研究更具现实意义。本文以张掖市为研究区域,将2000年作为基准年对农业生产对气候变化的脆弱性进行了评价。评价结果表明:肃南为最脆弱地区,甘州区属于中等脆弱地区,高台、民乐属于较不脆弱地区,临泽、山丹属于最不脆弱地区。在脆弱性评价的基础上提出了相应的适应性对策。对调整优化区域土地利用结构,促进区域生态、经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。

Because of the uncertainty of climate change,the assessment of human response to climate change is more necessary than the study on the impact of climatic change.This research assessed the vulnerablity of agriculture production to climatic change see 2000 as baseline year.Some conclusions by the study were as follows: Sunan county was the most vulnerable region;Ganzhou Borough was the secondary;Gaotai and Minle county were of a little ulnerable region,Shandan andLinze county were the least vulnerable region...