摘要
OLR距平场与华南西部主汛期降水的相关分析场显示,在黑潮区域有强烈的高相关信号反映.黑潮区OLR距平指数与华南主汛期降水的遥相关分析显示,前期黑潮区OLR距平指数的异常,可以成为预测主汛期降水有一定指示意义的前兆信号.并在此基础上建立主成分降维分析方法,对1989～2000年主汛期降水作预测及回代检验,检验结果准确率达75%,说明用黑潮区OLR距平指数作为预报因子可以取得良好的预报成绩.
The correlation analysis field of the OLR departure field and the precipitation of the main flood season in the west of Southern China indicate that there is strong high-coherent signals reflection in the Black Current area.The OLR departure index in Black Current area and the remote correlation analysis of the precipitation of the main flood season in Southern China indicate that the abnormality of the early stage of the OLR departure index in the Black Current area may become the omen signal which has the...
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2005年第3期5-8,共4页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
关键词
黑潮
OLR
黑潮OLR距平指数
主成分降维分析
Black Current
OLR
Black Current OLR departure index
the cutting-dimension analysis of the main components
