事故致因理论述评

Overview on Accident-Caursing Theories

文章对各种事故致因理论形成的历史背景及研究视角进行了简要回顾,重点论述了海因里希事故因果边锁论、管理失误论、能量意外释放论、以人误为主因的事故模型、两类危险源理论、轨迹交叉论及Reason的复杂系统事故因果模型,并对他们的观点进行了评价,对其未来发展趋势进行了预测。

The article has retrospected the background and research angle of Accident-Caursing theories simply.It particularly discusses Heinrich s Accident Cause and Chain Model,Manage Fault Theory,Energy Unexpected Release Theory, Human-error Accident Model,two types of Dangerous Resource Theory,Orbit Cross theory and Reason s Complex System Accident-Caursing Theories,and gives some appraisal according to their theories,and finally forecasts its future developments.