随机模拟法在玛纳斯河设计洪水中的应用

Application of Random Simulation Technology in Designing Flood of Manas River

运用自回归随机模型的原理,探讨了随机模拟玛纳斯河设计洪水的方法,为玛纳斯河设计洪水提供了一种新的比较方案。通过对玛纳斯河日流量过程统计特征和自相关结构的分析,再结合玛纳斯河流域的水文规律,应用自回归随机模型模拟玛纳斯河流域的来水过程,并进行了其实用性检验,结果表明:非平稳一阶自回归模型适用于该地区的水文模拟。

The design of flood is the prerequisite of the flood-control layout research and construction in the rivers.Along with the computer operational capability enhancement,the study and application of the flood random simulations technology developed gradually.This article introduces the basic principles of the autoregressive model.Based on the analysis of the statistic properties,the autocorrelation structure of daily flow and the hydrology rules of Manas river,it simulates the hydrology with one rank auto-regr...