大坝防洪时变风险率研究

Researches on time-varying risk rate for flood control of dams

在时变效应基础上,分析了影响大坝防洪安全各种随机量的时变特性,进行了时变随机量定量评估方法的研究。将Bayes统计推断方法引入防洪时变随机量的评估中,有利于克服经典统计学方法的局限性,具有一定的实用性和可操作性。以大坝漫顶时变风险率分析为例,讨论了泥沙淤积、泄洪闸门事故等的时变作用,采用概率统计方法和Bayes推断的方法,进行了时变随机量的定量评估,分析了时变效应对大坝防洪安全的影响。

With the approaching of the 50-year design period of various dams in China,the flood control safety problems of dams induced by their ageing have attracted many researchers.In order to objectively evaluate the flood control safety of the aged dams,the theories of the time-varying effect are introduced,the concept of time-varying risk rate of flood control is extended,and its quantitative calculation is also put forward.On such a basis,the time-varying characteristics of various stochastic factors affecting ...