珠江流域枯水期流量周期特征及影响因素分析

Analysis on the period characteristic of low flow in pearl river basin and effect factors

本文从珠江流域的枯水问题入手,重点分析了珠江流域几个主要控制站(梧州站、马口+三水站、博罗站)约50年的流量时间序列,并利用正规化周期回归模型提取了序列的周期,最后,对厄尔尼诺、太阳黑子、人类活动等对枯水径流的影响进行了分析,得到以下结论:珠江流域三个主要控制站点存在21年、11年的显著周期;厄尔尼诺现象的对枯水期流量的影响有滞后效应,总体而言,使珠江流域下游地区枯水期来水更枯,拉尼娜现象影响特征不明显;太阳黑子活动规律和枯水期流量变化特征相反,其周期和流量变化周期较为一致;人类活动对枯水的影响越来越大,使枯水期水资源供需矛盾加大。最后提出珠江流域枯水研究未来的发展方向。

The author introduces the low flow problem of Pearl River Basin firstly.Then,The paper pays most attentions to the runonff characteristic of the main stations of pearl river basin,including Wuzhou,Makou+sanshui and Boluo,which are about 50 years series.Applying the Normalized Period Precision Model,we get the period of the three series.Through analysis on the effect factors including EL Nino a,sunspots and humans action,we concludes these: there are about 21 years,11years period changes of three series.And ...