洪灾风险度量方法研究

A study on quantitative flood risk measure method

风险度量方法的选择直接影响风险分析结果从而影响风险决策。本文在对风险含义辨析的基础上,对常用洪灾风险度量方法进行评述,针对洪灾风险度量存在的指标单调、未充分考虑决策者主观感受等问题,讨论了将VaR方法以及基于效用的风险度量方法应用到洪灾风险度量中的可能性。

The risk measure method is of great importance in risk analysis,which directly relates to the results of risk analysis and in turn influences the decision-making.The article analyzed conception of "risk",reviewed and made comments on the risk measure methods often used in flood risk analysis.Considering the monotony and the defect that can t reflect the subjective preference of the often used flood risk measure method,the article discuss the feasibility and means that apply the VaR method and utility-based ...