人口红利对江苏省经济增长的影响

The Impact from Demographic Dividend on the Economic Growth in Jiangsu Province

利用江苏省“五普”数据以及历年统计年鉴的数据,考察了江苏省人口转变的过程及人口红利水平。借助2001-2005年江苏省各市的面板数据,以人均GDP增长率为因变量,出生率、死亡率、自然增长率、从业人口比例等指标为自变量,分析了人口红利对江苏省经济增长的影响。研究结果表明,人口红利对江苏省经济增长起到了积极作用,但相对于资本的作用而言,其影响较弱。

Based on the data from the censuses and annual statistics,this paper investigates Jiangsu's demographic transition and the demographic dividend,whose impact on the province's economic growth is then analysed here.The analysis is made by using the growth rate of GDP per capita as the dependent variable,and the rate of birth,of death,of population growth and of working population et al as the independent variables.The results show that the dividend has a positive effect on the economic growth,but it is relatively limited,compared with the effect of capital.