关于长周期连续安全节能有效生产基础理论的探讨

A discussion of fundamental theory of long period continuous production emphasizing effectiveness, safety and energy saving

石油化工产业是关系国计民生的支柱产业,其中乙烯生产是重中之重,其装置的长周期运行能创造重大的经济效益,但与之而来的安全问题和其它风险不容忽视。针对乙烯生产系统的复杂性,综合考虑装置、人员、以及管理制度等因素是准确、及时的评估生产方案和实施科学管理的必须要求。本文基于人工社会学理论,针对乙烯生产这个复杂系统,提出了人工乙烯系统的设想,通过实际乙烯系统与人工乙烯系统的"平行",形成对包括培训、试验、优化等多个管理目标的支持,并探讨了其优势和在实际生产中的应用。根据人工社会学的建模和"计算试验"的方法,通过人工乙烯系统的实现,有望解决大规模乙烯生产系统难以有效评估和综合优化管理的问题,全面提升我国乙烯生产的管理水平。

Petrol-chemical industry is a key industry that has significant impacts on all aspects of economy and social life. Within this industry, ethylene production is critical. The long period operation could create tremendous economical benefit. However, safety problems and other risks can't be neglected. Ethylene production system is a complex system, therefore, in order to evaluate the production plan and achieve other management objectives, factors including equipments, operators and management policies have to be considered. Based on the theory of Artificial Society (AS) , we propose the framework of artificial ethylene system. With the ' parallel' real ethylene production system, the artificial ethylene system can help with various managerial objectives, such as, training, testing and optimization. We then discuss the advantages and potential applications in practice. According to the AS modeling and ' computational experiment' methods, the implementation of artificial ethylene system is expected to solve the problems of evaluating large 9cale ethylene production systems and optimizing integrated management problems, which is expected to improve the overall performance of ethylene production nationwide.