住宅供给结构均衡性的技术评价及预测

On the evaluation and prediction of the equilibrium of housing supply structure

目前,中国部分城市高档商品住宅供给过剩、经济适用住宅以及中低档商品住宅供给不足的矛盾日益突出.这种结构性失衡的结果必然影响住宅市场的健康发展,甚至威胁宏观经济的良性运行.以往的研究多集中在住宅市场供给结构失衡的定性分析和主观评述,缺乏对住宅市场供给结构均衡性的定量分析.本文目的在于科学地评价住宅市场供给结构的均衡性,为政府制定宏观经济政策提供决策依据.首先利用3δ法将住宅市场供给结构均衡性进行分级,然后选择典型地区进行评价.结果表明高档商品住宅供给过剩,而经济适用住宅供给不足.最后利用BP神经网络算法对均衡性进行预测,预测结果与评价结果基本一致.

Currently,the contradiction of over-supply of luxury housing,inefficient supply of economy housing and middle and low commodity housing in some cities of China is serious.The result of structural disequilibrium must affect health development of housing market,threaten macro-economy finally.Most researches on housing market are qualitative analysis and subjective comment of disequilibrium of housing supply structure,and lack of quantitative analysis.The object of this paper is to evaluate equilibrium of housing market's supply structure scientifically,and provide decision-making references for government to constitute macro-economic policy.This paper makes classification on equilibrium of housing supply structure with the method of 3δ,then evaluates eight typical districts.The outcome of the research indicates that the supply of luxury housing is overmuch,but the supply of economical housing is deficient.Lastly,the paper evaluates the equilibrium on the housing supply structure by use of BP nerve network.The result of prediction is consistent with that of evaluation.