县(市)级土地利用总体规划中耕地需求量预测方法及其应用

PREDICTING METHODS OF ARABLE LAND DEMAND AND THEIR APPLICATION IN COUNTY'S GENERAL LAND USE PLANNING

科学准确地预测耕地需求量,是制定县(市)级土地利用总体规划的基础。文章根据中国南方某县1996—2005年来的耕地变更调查统计数据,分别采用趋势分析法、回归分析法、指数平滑法、GM(1,1)模型法和灰色—马尔柯夫链模型的方法,对该地区耕地总量进行了模拟和预测。不同方法的预测结果表明,基于灰色—马尔柯夫链方法的预测结果更加准确可靠,更有利于土地管理决策者的经济决策行为。在当前耕地利用方式的背景下,灰色—马尔柯夫链模型可以作为县(市)级土地利用总体规划中耕地需求量预测方法的一种好选择。

Scientifically and accurately predicting arable land demand is the base of making general land-use planning.In this paper,based on the field survey and statistic data of land changes in a county of the southern China during 1996-2005,the gross arable land in this region was simulated and predicted using trend analysis method,regression analysis method,exponent smoothing method,Grey Model GM(1,1) and Grey-Markov Chain theory,respectively.The results of different methods indicate that the Grey-Markov Chain Method is more reliable and effective for policy makers of land management.In consideration of the current land-use mode,the Grey-Markov Chain Method is preferable for predicting arable land demand of county's general land-use planning.