电信制造业销售预测精度(forecast accuracy)的趋势分析方法——基于数据仓库技术解决方案的研究

Forecast Accuracy Trend Research and Analysis in Telecomm Industry——Based on Data Warehouse Solution

电信制造企业中销售预测精度是用来衡量销售人员的预测水平.在企业日常生产活动中,预测人员要根据可能发生的销售合同进行提前预测.这就要求预测人员对销售需求进行很好的估计和度量.在实际的合同交货月所记录的真实出货记录在ERP系统中.于是预测精度的要求由此而来.预测精度是根据产品的实际销售数量和预测数量进行对比分析得出前一个月对当前月的预测精度.再根据不同的预测月不同的权重进行加权平均得出的实际精度.这种指标的衡量意义在预测人员可以此作为参照不断提高预测水平.生产部门和仓储部门可以进行精确计划和合理安排库存.提高准时交货率和减少库存成本.使得企业的资源得到精确配置.预测精度的趋势分析方式基于以上的计算方法加上趋势分析,对产品,客户,地区进行历史预测数据进行展现.提供一个直观的变动趋势来满足不同的级别管理层的考核需要.进行日常跟踪从而提出改进需要.达到资源的最优配置.从而给企业带来管理成本的下降.

What's the FA? Forecast Accuracy (FA) is propose to measure the fist level forecast of sales in telecomm enterprise. In daily production activities, sales need to do quantities forecast according to different customer sales demand which could be possible in the next couple of months. So planning department can arrange production plan accordingly to meet the delivery required. Even though sales demand is not the actual sales contract, sales need to do forecast ahead of time for the coming sales contract. It requires sales to perform accuracy forecast and estimation. At same time, the actual sales recorded in ERP. The requirement of FA is coming out. What's the FA formula? The Forecast Accuracy metrics are edited once a month. The total FA value is calculated as weighted sum of the values relevant to each Forecast edition. Sales person can improve his forecast level comparison to his previously ones. The planning and warehouse department can arrange stock reasonably. Thus it helps to improve on time delivery and save storage. Enterprise resource can be configured accurately. The trend analysis for FA is based on the above formula and trend method to export the data slice from products, customer, and geography dimension. The purpose is to supply trend diagram to meet the different management level check requirement. Also daily track included. So that it can support decision making to reach the optimization of resource configuration to save the management cost accordingly.