海口不同时间尺度降水量统计拟合

Fitness Analysis of Multiple Time Scale Precipitation Totals in Haikou

根据Γ分布函数对海口不同时间尺度降水量进行了拟合,用最大似然法估计分布函数中的参数,然后利用柯尔莫哥洛夫方法对拟合效果进行了检验。在此基础上计算了各级保证率下的降水量。结果表明,Γ分布函数对海口不同时间尺度降水量均有较好拟合效果,大部分月份30年平均降水量高于50%保证率下降水量,低于60%保证率下降水量。

This paper first shows the probability distributions of a given time scale of monthly precipitation totals are fitted by using the Gamma distribution model in Haikou which parameters were estimated by the Method of Maximum likelihood and the fitness is checked up by Kolmogorov Test.The results reflect that the presented method can be used to approximate its distribution function,and good approximation effect can be achieved.Most months the 30 years average monthly precipitation totals is more than 50% guarantee rate precipitation totals but lower than 60% guarantee rate precipitation totals.