地震序列较强余震最小二乘拟合预测的方法研究

Study on the prediction of relatively strong aftershocks in earthquake sequence with least square fitting method

本研究给出了针对地震序列较强余震发生时间进行快速预测的一种方法,即最小二乘拟合预测方法。该方法包括:最小二乘拟合预测模型的建立、预测模型的各种可信性检验及模型预测等内容。震例研究表明,该方法在大(强)地震现场震情分析中可望发挥积极作用。

A fast method to predict the occurring time of relatively strong aftershocks in earthquake sequence is presented,which is the least square fitting method.The establishment and test of the least square fitting model as well as its application is introduced.