我国国债规模的统计分析与政策取向

The Statistical Analysis and Policy Tendency of China National Debt Scale

受当前经济状况的影响，我国国债存在着财政本身的债务重负和国民经济应债能力宽松的矛盾，致使我国国债规模管理存在着严重的风险性，有可能导致债务危机，进而引发财政危机。因此发现、预见和预 防债务危机，合理确定未来几年我国的国债发行政策取向应为当务之急。

Influenced by the present economic conditions, there exists the contradiction between the debt burden of the finance itself and the loose debt - repaying capacity of the national economy, which causes the existence of serious risk in the scale management of the national debt. The financial crisis will break out as a result of the possible debt crisis. Therefore, it is important to discover. foresee and prevent the debt crisis. The policy tendency of issuing our national debt in the coming several years can be reasonably fixed.