随机服务系统理论在威胁估计中的应用

Application of the stochastic service system theory for threat assessment

利用防空武器与空袭目标的对抗过程分析武器系统的作战效能,对武器系统的设计和使用者来说都是不可缺少的环节。随机服务系统理论或称排队论是一种解析分析计算武器系统作战效能的有效工具。用随机服务系统理论方法建立评价武器系统的作战效能的线性解析模型,通过线性解析模型计算空袭目标的突防概率,从而得到用于对敌空袭目标威胁估计的重要参数,根据突防概率可以提供敌空袭目标对我保卫目标或区域所构成的威胁等级,从而使指挥员做出快速、准确的应对措施。

It is indispensable to deviser and user of weapon system when they analyze the combat efficient of weapon system utilizing confronting process of air defense weapon and air attack targets.The stochastic service system theory,which is also called queuing theory,is a kind of efficient implement for analyzing and calculating the combat efficiency of weapon system.A linear analyzing math model for evaluating the combat efficiency of weapon system with the stochastic service system theory is set up.Offence-defense probability of the air attack objects are calculated,and an important parameter of threat assessment is obtained.The threat rank may be offered to defense object or area by sorting the threat extent of enemy air attack targets based on the offence-defense probability so as to make out tactical planning rapidly and accurately for commander.