人民币汇率升值的路径选择

The Path Selection of RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation

文章区分“市场主导型”和“政府主导型”升值,在弹性价格货币主义理论框架基础上,采用动态优化方法,求解出汇率升值的最优路径以及相对应的最优货币政策。结果表明:“市场主导型”升值宜采用单一货币政策规则,若产出的预期汇率弹性小于资本可流动下产出的利率弹性,最优汇率升值路径为单一变动曲线。“政府主导型”升值下,若产出的预期汇率弹性大于(小于)产出的利率弹性,可采取扩张(紧缩)式货币政策,所对应的最优升值路径显现出阶段性特征,政府可选择“先贬后升”(“先升后贬”)的升值策略。

This paper differentiates“market-dominating”from“government-dominating”appreciation, which is based on flexible price monetary model and employs dynamic optimization method to solve optimal path of exchange rate appreciation and the optimal monetary policy.The conclusions indicate that the“market- dominating”appreciation should adopt single monetary rules and optimal exchange rate appreciation path is a single variable curve if exchange rate expectation elasticity of output is less than interest rates elast...