境外人民币流通规模估计——基于季度数据的协整分析

Estimate on RMB Circulation Scale outside China's Mainland—Cointegration Test Based on Quarterly Data

本文对马荣华,饶晓辉[1]的模型进行了改进,并在此基础上,运用1990至1998年的季度数据和扣除本地需求法,对1999年至2005年的季度人民币境外持有规模进行了估算,结果显示,自1999年以来,人民币境外持有规模不断扩大,从80多亿一直增加到2005年的250多亿元,2003年甚至一度达到1060亿元。最后,本文分析了人民币境外流通所可能产生的各种影响,并提出了简要的政策建议。

This paper improves the model employed by MA Rong-hua and RAO Xiao-hui(2006).Based on modified model,the author estimates RMB circulation scale outside China's Mainland from 1999:1 to 2005:4.The conclusion confirms that the above-mentioned scale has increased greatly since the 1990s,with over 8 billion Yuan in 1999,over 25 billion Yuan in 2005,and 106 billion Yuan in 2003.Finally,we analyze the effects of RMB external circulation propose policy recommendations.