宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究

An empirical analysis of maro economic fluctuation and industry construction change

宏观经济波动与产业结构变动密切相关,产业结构的调整必然会引发宏观经济波动。然而,由于各大产业的内部构成和运作方式存在重大差异,因此,它们的变动对宏观经济波动的贡献率是各不相同的。计量经济分析的结果表明,第二产业和第一产业对宏观经济波动贡献率最大,但是,第一产业的作用在统计上更为显著,而第三产业的变动与宏观经济波动之间不存在因果关系。而宏观经济波动不是产业结构调整的根本原因。

Macro economic fluctuation and industrial structure are closely related in that adjustment of the latter will definitely trigger the former.However,inner structures and operating modes of all major industries are quite different,so they make different contributions to macro economic fluctuation.The results of quantitative economic analysis indicate that the secondary and the primary industries make the maximum contribution to macro economic fluctuation.But the primary industry plays a statistically more sig...