中国粮食产量和价格的波动与总需求冲击

Fluctuations of Output and Price of Grain & Aggregate Demand Shock in China

从对粮食生产部门和非粮食生产部门的一般均衡出发,定性地分析了粮食价格变化、产量波动和要素使用对总需求冲击的反应情况,给中国粮食的生产和价格行为与总需求波动的关系找到一种既与经验相符合又在理论逻辑上内在一致的解释。总需求冲击导致生产要素在粮食生产部门和非粮食生产部门之间转移,从而导致粮食价格的顺周期变化和粮食产量的逆周期波动(相对于宏观经济波动而言)。

From the general equilibrium of grain production sector and non-grain production sector,qualitatively analyze the reaction of grain price,grain output and the use of production factor to the aggregate demand shock and presents an explanation of the relation between grain price,production and the aggregate demand fluctuation.The aggregate demand shock leads to the transfer of factors between the grain production sector and non-grain production sector,and makes the grain price change procyclicly and the grain...