非实体资本大量内流的潜在风险及防范措施

The latent risk and guarding measure of Non-entity capital' inflows

非实体资本的大量流入与发展中国家脆弱的金融体系结合会产生逆向选择和道德风险,极易导致银行危机和货币危机,这已被墨西哥金融危机和东南亚金融危机所证实。2002年以来,中国非实体资本大量流入,造成国际储备量过大、通货膨胀压力大等诸多问题,使政府维持经济稳定政策的难度越来越大。完善微观治理和资金配置,建立合理的汇率形成机制,加强资本流动的监管,是防范风险的解决思路。

What leads to the bank crisis and money crisis easily is the reverse choice and moral hazard caused by the combination between the massive inflow of non-entity capital and the financial fragility in developing countries, which has been proved by mexico financial crisis and south-east asia crisis. Since 2002, a lot of problems caused by the massive inflow of non-entity capital , such as over-mass of international reserve, the pressure of inflation, ect., have made the policy of keeping economy steady more and more difficult. Under the prerequisite of defining the non-entity capital, this paper analyzes the reason and potential risk of the massive inflow of non-entity capital, and gives the policy methods of guarding the massive inflow of non-entity capital at the same time.