梨树生长的灰色关联分析和预测模型

Grey Related Degree Analysis and Prediction Model of Pear Growth

以不同树龄鸭梨树的生长发育资料为依据,利用灰色关联分析法,对鸭梨产量与树体发育指标的关联程度进行了分析。结果表明,影响鸭梨产量的树体因素中,果数占据最为重要的地位。根据G(0,m)预测模型,由干周增长量、树高和枝展可有效预测枝量,由果数和单果重可有效预测产量。经检验,建立的灰色预测模型良好。从而定量说明,鸭梨产量与树体发育性状之间存在着密切关系。

Based on growth and development data of Yali pear at different years,the grey related degree analysis and G(0,m)prediction model were carried out.The results showed that the number of fruit of yali was the most important factor to determine fruit yield among different factors of trees.The amount of branch was effectively predicted by increment of trunk circumference,tree high and branch width,and yield by fruit number and per fruit weight.The grey prediction model was good after checking,thus,it suggested that these characteristics had close correlation.