对中国转型的政治约束条件的经济学分析

Economic Analysis on Political Constrains of China's Economic Transition

中国转型经济走向何方受到诸多政治条件的制约。全球化降低了转型的交易成本,也导致效用函数不同的利益集团的分野,只有在转型过程中的收益大于损失,利益集团才会有支持转型的动力。在中国工业化的富国征程中,“三农”问题如影随行,这不仅是一个经济问题,也是一个政治问题,转型的成功也取决于下一步能否取得农民的持续支持。政府是转型的推动者,同时也必须面对转型。这些因素的交互作用成为中国下一步转型的逻辑起点,导致中国的经济转型仍存在很大的不确定性。

There are many political constraints in china's economic transition.Globalization reduces transaction cost of the transition,but brings about the dividing line between the interest groups originating from different utility functions.Only when total returns over total cost,interest group supports reform on china's economic transition.Problems over agriculture countryside and farmers in china's industrialization are not only an economy question,but also a political question.The success of the transition depends on the deep support from farmers.Government is the promoter of the transition,and it has to face transition.All these relative factors will become the beginning of logic for the transition.They lead to uncertainty of the future economic transition of china.