基于定量统计分析的技术科学发展预测

Forecast about development of technological sciences based on the statistic analysis

根据对“技术科学”范畴的统一界定,较全面地统计了文艺复兴以后所产生的各种技术科学学科。在绘制技术科学发展的时间序列特征曲线基础上,分别从技术科学学科数的增量和累积量两重视角,分析了技术科学的发展特征与规律,预测了21世纪上半叶技术科学的发展趋势。通过两种模型定量结论的比较发现:(1)两者从不同侧面较为一致地反映了技术科学的发展特征与规律;(2)技术科学的发展受到科学内在逻辑力量和外部社会需求两种因素的驱动;(3)20世纪中叶之后,技术科学的发展将更多地受到社会经济发展的制约。

According to the definition of 'technological sciences',the proposed two mathematical models and forecasts the development of technological sciences in the first half of 21st century were investigated with the statistical data of technological science subjects after the Renaissance.Three conclusions were obtained with the two models.(1) Both of models reflected the characters and rules of technological sciences from different aspects.(2) The development of technological sciences was mainly driven by two factors,the logic power of science system and the demand of society.(3) From the middle of twenty century on,the development of technological sciences would be totally restricted to the development of society and economy.