自然灾害链式效应结构关系及其复杂性规律研究

STUDY ON STRUCTURAL RELATION OF CHAIN EFFECTS ON NATURAL DISASTER AND ITS COMPLEXITY

运用系统理论观点,从数学层面上分析自然灾害系统的链式关系结构,建立自然灾害链式效应数学关系模型。通过对自然灾害结构关系模型的数学分析,揭示自然灾害系统链式响应行为的复杂性规律和运动本质,指出自然灾害复杂响应行为是外部环境复杂输入和自身内部结构关系变化两方面共同作用的结果。研究结果表明,自然灾害链式关系环是自然灾害复杂性的主要根源;链式关系环的存在使得自然灾害演化过程具有记忆性、不可逆性、自组织性、路径敏感性和间断性,以及与此相关的一切复杂现象。最后,以边坡渐进破坏失稳过程为应用分析示例说明以上研究结论的正确性。

Using systems theory,the structural relation of chain effects on natural disaster is mathematically analyzed;and a mathematical model is deduced.According to the analysis of the mathematical model of chain effects of natural disaster,some complex laws of chain effects natural disaster and an originality of the complexity are achieved;and it shows that chain effects on natural disaster are caused and dominated by both the environments and structural relation.The result shows that the structural relation chain-cycle is the main originality of natural disaster complexity.If there is a structural relation chain-cycle in natural disaster systems during evolution,the properties of natural disaster systems would reserve their memory,irreversibility,self-organizing,loading path effect,discontinuity and other variables.Application in slope of progressive failure demonstrates that the conclusion is practical.