香港创业板上市公司财务预警实证分析

A Real Diagnosis Examination of the Financial Early Warning of Listed Corporations on Hong Kong GEM

选择了吴世农、卢贤义(2001)提出的两个模型,进行适用性实证检验,结果表明存在的误判率较高,模型拟合系数偏差等问题。结合企业经营业绩评价综合指数法的有益经验,构造了适合香港创业板上市公司的财务预警综合指数法,建议对香港创业板上市公司进行财务预警的最好方法是在综合指数法的基础上,辅以定性方法分析,以便对公司的财务状况作全面综合的评价。

Two models proposed by Wu Shinong and Lu Xinayi (2001) are chosen for the applicability test. Results show that problems such as high misjudged rate and model fitting coefficient inferiority come into existence. Based on the above study and taking in the beneficial experiences of appraisal synthesis exponential method , a financial early warning synthesis exponential method is conceived. The best method to give early financial warning to the corporations is to form a comprehensive appraisal of the corporation's condition on the basis of synthesis exponential method, auxiliary by qualitative analysis method.