基于马尔柯夫理论的森林火灾趋势预测

Forest fire tendency prediction based on Markove theory

利用马尔柯夫理论预测森林火灾发生的频数和强度趋势。结果表明,2007年以后,研究区域森林火灾发生频数等级主要是A级,即森林火灾发生次数在10次以下,其发生概率为57%以上,当经过足够多步转移以后其固定概率为(0.583 0.166 0.166 0.085)。森林火灾发生强度的4个级别概率较接近,当经过足够多步转移后其固定概率为(0.182 0.364 0.272 0.182)。

The forest fire occurrence frequency and intensity were predicted by means of Markov theory.The result indicates that after 2007,the forest fire frequency ranks mainly the A level,namely,the forest fire frequency is below 10,with probability above 57%.When there are some steps of shift,its fixed probability is 0.583,0.166,0.166,and 0.085.The probabilities of the four ranks of forest fire intensity are comparatively approximate.With some steps of shift,its fixed probability is 0.182,0.364,0.272,and 0.182.