摘要
本文使用乘积季节模型,对1999年到2005年全国能源生产总量进行分析,给出乘积季节模型的一般建模程序。根据Box-Jenkins的建模思想,从各种指标最终确定模型(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12,该模型显示了非常好的拟合及预测效果。
This article applies the multiplicative seasonality ARIMA model to analyse the domestic energy yield,using the data from 1999 to 2005,and also this article gives the common process for multiply seasonal model.According to Box-Jenkins time series analysis,and some other indexes of the ARIMA model ,the finial model is(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)_(12),and it shows us very good fitness and forecasting ability.
出处
《宜宾学院学报》
2005年第12期34-38,共5页
Journal of Yibin University
关键词
乘积季节模型
时间序列
全国能源生产总量
Multiplicative Seasonality Model
Time Series
Domestic Energy Yield
