非规则信息的结构分析与雾的区域预测

Structure analysis of irregular information and regional fog forecast

按照航空飞行的特殊需要,就大气能见度因素———雾的预测问题,引用物质演化的溃变原理,对大范围、区域性和测站点雾的发生、发展、消亡的实际案例进行了物理机理和预测分析。结果显示,根据V-3θ图的结构特征,可预测区域性雾的分布和量级,并可明确区分雾的类别。经实际检验,该方法可明显地改善机场的业务预报。

This article is aimed at forecast of fog,an important issue of atmospheric visibility which is intimately related to flight safety of civil aviation.In terms of the principle of blow-up on evolution of substance,analysis of physical mechanism and forecast are made for case study of fog occurrence,development and disappearance in a regional scale.The results show that structural characteristics denoted by(V)-3θ diagrams can be applied to forecasting distribution,density and category of fogs in regional scale.It has been verified through practical application that the method under discussion can essentially improve operational fog forecast at airport.