中国大都市群地区的水灾风险与应急管理研究

Flood risk assessment and emergency management in metropolises of China

在经典风险评价理论模型的基础上,结合自然灾害系统理论,建立了简明水灾综合风险评价模型,完成了中国九大都市群的水灾风险评价。结果表明:我国都市群水灾风险呈现出以都市区中心市为核心的(近)圈层状分布;水灾风险由高到低依次为长三角、珠三角、长江中游、京津唐、吉黑、中原、成渝、辽中南和山东半岛都市群。基于上述研究,强调应建立包含水灾综合风险评价、水灾风险应急预案编制与情景模拟以及水灾风险区划与规划的水灾风险应急管理体系。

Based on disaster system theory,a simplified method to disaster risk assessment was developed by combining hazard risk assessment and potential vulnerability assessment.Flood risks of metropolises in China were assessed and studied on two different scales.The result indicates that,the spatial pattern of flood risk shapes a circle-liked structure and the risk index drops gradually from the center of metropolitan regions to the outer edge zone.Flood risks of Metropolises in the south of China are significantly higher than those in the north of China.Ranked by flood risk from high to low,Metropolis groups in Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta,middle reaches of Yangtze River,Beijing-Tianjin-Tangsan,Jilin-Heilongjiang,Central Plains,Chengdu-Chongqing,central and southen Liaoning and Shangdong Peninsula are in sequence.Based on the flood risk analysis above,relevant emergency management system was put forward as a safety protection strategy for flood alleviation in these areas.It is suggested that detection-forecasting-warning,emergency protocol compiling,and regionalization-planning should be contained in the system.