基于农户尺度的农业旱灾成灾风险评价与可持续发展

Peasant household-based drought risk assessment and sustainable development of agriculture

在对雨养和灌溉农业典型区农户问卷调查的基础上,提出了成灾风险的概念和评价思路,构建了农户尺度农业旱灾成灾风险的评价指标体系和模型;基于国家农村调查队的统计数据,对典型区农业旱灾成灾风险进行了评价,确定了人均纯收入2500和2750元,以及人均粮食产量200和800kg为几个影响农业旱灾成灾风险变化的临界值。最后,提出了雨养/灌溉农业典型区降低成灾风险的可持续发展策略,如波动的农牧业政策、提高自然降水利用率等。

Based on the questionnaire to peasant households in typically agricuitural drought counties with artificial and rainwater irrigation respectively,the paper brought forward the concept and method to assess agricultural drought risk on peasant household scale,and set up assessment index and model system of agriculture drought risk.Based on data from national rural survey team,the paper assessed agriculture drought risk of the model region on the peasant household scale.The research shows that the annual net per capita income of 2500 & 2750 Yuan RMB and per capita grain yield of 200 & 800kg became the threshold of drought risk value.Finally the sustainable development strategy are presented for decreasing the risk to suffer disaster in typically agricultural areas with artificial and rainwater irrigation,such as implementing adjustable agricultural policies and increasing(utilization) ratio of the natural precipitation.