吉林省城市干旱缺水风险评价体系与模型研究

Risk assessment system and model research on urban drought and water shortage in Jilin Province

以吉林省地级城市为研究对象,从造成城市干旱缺水的致灾因子危险性,承灾体的暴露性、脆弱性和防旱抗旱能力四个方面着手,利用自然灾害指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法,建立了城市干旱缺水风险评价模型,引用城市干旱缺水风险指数(UDR I),对城市干旱缺水风险程度进行了评价,并借助G IS技术绘制了吉林省城市干旱缺水风险分布图,以期为实现吉林省水资源可持续利用、保障区域经济可持续发展和老工业基地改造战略实施提供科学依据。

The water shortage,especially for city seriously affects the social and economic development of city and becomes a world-wide problem.Jilin Province is one of the major provinces with drought and water shortage in the Northern China.Drought and water shortage are characterized by their high frequency,broad range and great loss.This study presents a model of risk assessment of urban drought and water shortage which integrates hazard,exposure, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability in Jilin Province, China by using natural disaster risk index method,weighted comprehensive analysis and analytic hierarchy process and the technology of natural disaster risk assessment.The degree of the water shortage is assessed by the risk assessment model,the risk map of urban drought and water shortage is drawn based on GIS.This study can be expected to provide solid theories and technological supports for taking comprehensive and active measurements to fight drought in Jilin Province.