潜在产出计算方法评析

Comment on and Analysis of the Calculating Method of the Potential Output

本文在总结分析国内外潜在产出的计算方法的基础上,指出国外官方组织普遍认同以经济理论为依据的生产函数法计算潜在产出,我国则普遍通过统计方法分解得出潜在产出。二者在计算潜在产出时均存在一定的缺陷,我国采用的统计分解方法有主观性和偏差性较大的缺点,应加以改进。

On the basis of the summary and analysis of the calculating methods of the potential output home and abroad, this paper points out that the official organizations of other countries generally accept the producing function method that is based on economic theories and that is used to calculate the potential output, while our country generally obtains the potential output by means of statistical decomposing. There exist some drawbacks in both methods. The one that our country has adopted is subjective and ina...