一种改进的GM(1,1)长期预测模型

A Modified GM(1,1) Long-term Forecasting Model

结合统计途径,通过引入一个外生变量,对传统GM(1,1)模型进行了改进 新建构的模型不仅能有效提高GM(1,1)长期预测精度,扩大灰色预测理论的适用范围;而且能真实反映观测在不同阶段的变化速度和演变趋势。

By applying statistic theory, along with the adoption of an exogenous variable, this paper explores a modified GM(1,1) model for long-term forecasting. This newly generated model has a better precision and a broader range for application, esp. for long-term forecasting than the traditional one. Further more, its clarification of the original data serial into sub-serials according to different developing speed and trend results in a great facilitation for decision makers.